I first encountered Gerd Gigerenzer at a conference in 2010 in Slovenia. He was a very entertaining and informative speaker and I enjoyed his presentation so much I bought the book! One thing that stayed with me was that medical students got less the 25% correct on a test on probability. Specialists didn’t fare much better. How are we able to make informed decisions in life, if we don’t understand the statistics? Especially the probabilities! “There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow” Does this mean it will either rain or not rain tomorrow? It will rain tomorrow in 30% of the area? It will rain 30% of the time? Or it will rain on 30% of the days like tomorrow? We need to know what the 30% is referring to. The book has many examples (some I now use in my classes) where statistics and probability have been incorrectly interpreted with dire consequences, a man who tested to positive to AIDS who committed suicide but didn’t have AIDS, people going to jail for offences they didn’t commit. My pet favourite for misinterpreting risk is Angelina Jolie. Her decision to have her breasts removes was front page news, the admission the quoted risk was incorrect about page 12. Gerd takes us through interpreting the risk by simplifying the often confusing conditional probabilities and just using a “how many people out of 100” approach. Consider a mammogram. “Your friend is in tears and is wondering what a positive result means. Is it absolutely positive she has breast cancer, or is the chance 99 percent, 95 percent, 90 percent, 50 percent or something else?” Then Gerd shows how anybody, even those who are math phobic can work it out. “Think of 100 women. One has breast cancer, and she will probably test positive. Of the 99 who do not have breast cancer, 9 will also test positive. How many of those who test positive actually have breast cancer?” So it is easy to see there were 10 women who tested positive, but only 1 (10%) actually had cancer! The book also discusses the relevance of national screening. While those who are picked up by the screening have improved outcomes, there is also a downside. Many of those who test positive do not and have a negative outcome – the next steps involve risks and then there is the stress. Gerd looks at whether this is the best use of the Health dollar but leaves the conclusion up to the reader. Gerd is very qualified to discuss statistics as he is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development[1]and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy,[2] both in Berlin, Germany. His mission is to try and make risk more understandable to everyone. I thoroughly recommend this book to anybody interested in improving their understanding of Risk and wanting to make informed decisions in their lives. You do not need to be a Maths nerd to understand, you just need some critical thinking!
~Jeanette Chapman
1 Comment
I’m not going to lie. Nerves and butterflies plagued me in the weeks leading up to 4pm on Friday the 2nd of March. I think it was mainly fear of the unknown, and the dread that I wouldn’t have 100% control over what I was about to do. As the day grew closer, I began to think of ways I could pull out. Maybe I wouldn’t fit the wetsuit? Maybe Hilary and/or Rosie wouldn’t be able to go? On Thursday night, I decided to take a leaf out of Hilary’s (very organised and forward-thinking) book, and watch some YouTube videos. Predictably, the “beginner” videos made it seem all too easy. Trying to “pop up” from the carpet in my bedroom to my feet proved to be pretty much impossible. Due to my weight, I actually physically couldn’t get to my feet in one motion from a planking position. In a panic, I sent some snaps to Rosie and Hilary expressing my doubts. “#wereallinthistogether” “Nope, we are going!” they replied. We were going as a united front, no doubt about that. The next day, Durrie reassured me that I’d be fine. I wasn’t getting out of it that easily! We pulled up opposite Starfish in St Clair. Kussi, Durrie, Jennine and seven students were there waiting. This was happening! Rosie, Hilary and I were issued our wetsuits and excitedly headed to the changing rooms to struggle into them. It was my first time even wearing a wetsuit, and ohmygosh! I am going to get myself one so I will finally be able to brave the arctic Dunedin sea - something I assumed I would never ever do. Getting the surfboard from the hire van down to the beach was a real struggle. When we finally reached our instruction point, I was almost ready to pack it in. After some instructions from the instructor that again made surfing seem like child’s play, and an obligatory photo opp, we were off into the surf. Thankfully the ever-ready Hilary had thought to ask the instructor one last essential question before we got to the water: What were some good phrases to yell when we caught the waves? We had been practising “cowabunga” “hang ten” and “surf ‘n’ safari’’ - were there any others we should know? Being in the water was so much fun, but absolutely exhausting. I really did feel like a learner, and I began to draw parallels between my experience and that of our students. From my waist-high vantage point in the white water, I watched as Hilary charged right out the back, all guns blazing. She charged through the whitewash and started with the experienced surfers. I watched Rosie frolic around, enjoying the challenge but not pushing herself to her limits, instead watching and examining the environment. I watched as one of our students, Emma, took instructions and then successfully caught her first wave on her first attempt! I watched Jennine try a few times, and then with the help of an instructor, stand up! As for me, I struggled to balance, even just lying on the board! I kept positive and kept trying. I pushed through my fears and gave it my all. I accepted the help and encouragement of others. I reminded myself that even Kussi and Durrie had to start somewhere - they were once kooks too! The encouragement of my fellow first timers, the students (SUPER encouraging) and Durrie and Kussi really kept my spirits up. The instructors were calm and helpful too. My eyes stung, but my wetsuit meant I didn’t feel cold at all. I was getting smashed by the white wash, but I kept going. I caught a few waves, but I got no where near to standing up. In the end, about fifteen minutes before the end of the actual lesson, I was ready to get out of the water. I was completely done. I had no more energy! The main things I learned about being a learner were really just an unfortunate list of cliches:
All in all, I loved my time in the water. My plan is to get a bit more fitness up before I try again, as this will improve my overall enjoyment and ability. We have already decided on our next collaborative learning mission: horse riding! ~Regan Carroll, Rosie Joyce, Hilary Sutherland.
On our trip to Europe we had a cruise, three train and 10 plane trips as we visited 8 countries, in just under 7 weeks. So only enough time to gather first impressions of the places we visited. First up was London - but inner city London as we stayed in Paddington and just travelled on the inner tube links. Our impressions of London were that it was clean, multicultural and the people moved with a purpose. We didn’t see any evidence of homelessness or beggars. London looked prosperous. The only sign that the prosperity was not universal was the guy on the tube with the plastic bag of syringes, who after trying to beg for some money, and chatting to himself for a while, jabbed all the used syringes in succession into his arm. It was a totally different feeling in Brighton. Here it was very down at heel; the pavement was in need of repair, as did many buildings. We saw at least four people bedded down in the main street on our journey from the station to the sea and there were lots of beggars. It was much more mono-cultural, almost everybody we saw was white. Brighton looked neglected, and the prosperity we saw in London, gone. Onto the continent, and Vienna, the city of culture! Back to cleanliness,though Vienna was a little worn around the edges! Good food, especially the meat and pastries though definitely not cheap. Despite the delicious pastries, people did not seem overweight - until we got on the cruise and suddenly I felt much slimmer! The sight-seeing was much more reasonable than incredibly expensive London, with the churches free to visit (a contrast to St Paul’s!) Not a very multicultural city but very friendly and intensely proud of their Hapsburg Empire past, especially Maria Theresa. After the cruise and a bus trip, we were in Prague, the city of smokers. Alcohol was also readily available and you could buy spirits everywhere, including the equivalent of a Z petrol station. Beggars were in short supply in the city centre and we saw no homeless poeple. While the city was clean, it was a mix of past glory ( here Charles the IV was the big hero), badly constructed communist era buildings and beautifully restored buildings. The older guides were very anti-communist, and felt cost of living was high but we were told by a young guide that the employment rate is 98% and that some people just like to grumble! Whilst the official currency is koruna, euros were widely accepted though the conversion rate varied considerably. Tapas bars were prolific in Andalucia in Spain, and while they were usually busy, they were especially busy from lunch through to late afternoon. We also noticed that smoking was very common here as well, but the people were very friendly and happy to cope with my almost non-existent Spanish. There were lots of churches in Andalucia, though you either had to pay or sneak in after a service if you wanted to look inside. There were so many paintings of adoring angels and beatific Mary's and Jesus' that we really did overdose on religious paintings after I had dragged Jim into several cathedrals. New Year’s Eve we spent in a taxi queue. Not sure where it was posted that there was no public transport on New Year’s Eve but we didn’t find the post! Amsterdam really is the city of canals…. 50 kilometres and 1281 bridges! Not mention the nearly 850 000 bikes but there was no lycra in sight. Here the bikers just dress in normal clothes and ride at speeds under the speed limit and stay in the cycle lanes. The red light district was a bit of a disappointment, not nearly as interesting as I had imagined (not exactly quite what I had imagined, just not what we saw). Small red rooms with nobody home, presumably still recovering from the big night - it was New Year’s day. I know it was winter, but the city was a bit drab (maybe the New Year’s Eve rubbish didn’t help with this impression), very grey and uniform. Almost everybody spoke English and they were always very polite though I do feel too young to have people offering me their seats on the tram! It is no wonder that we saw almost no overweight people, the food is so dear that they obviously can’t afford those extra kilos! We didn’t spend much time in Paris, and our really lasting impression was our garret room…. We had thought there was a lift, but no, just 6 flights of stairs and we were both really sick. The room was missing a few things, like a basin and walls that didn’t slope, so not the most pleasant room! We had just been reading about artist’s garrets in the Van Gogh museum in Amsterdam, I did wonder if it was just karma. We did rise from our sickbed and venture into Paris and also out of Paris, (I was delighted to use my Navigo again). In the towns outside Paris many people did not speak English and I had to use my limited French but they were very considerate. Also the towns were quite rubbish free and actually looked tidier that the area around Gare du Nord where we stayed. Smoking, while more present than New Zealand was definitely less than in previous visits and less than we saw in places like Spain and Prague. Morocco, though it was touristy was still a bit of a cultural shock. Not quite what I had expected either. Firstly, there was the noise in the towns, especially in the squares and the souks. The bargaining for goods I had expected, but the motorbikes in Marrakech that are ubiquitous and drive at speed through the narrowest of medina alleys, were a surprise. Every scenic spot had its attendant sellers of everything from eye makeup (some kind of metal) to fossils to refilled bottles of water and heaps and heaps of scarves. Like many we went, you paid to go to the toilet but here you paid everywhere even in a cafe or restaurant. Once you had handed over your 5 to 10 dirham, you were given your allocated toilet paper ration. Sometimes flushing the loo was tipping a bucket of water down the loo. The friendliness and openness of many of the people was also unexpected and many people chatted to us even when they weren’t trying to sell us things. The Moroccans we met just seemed to get on with making the best of what they had. I had of course realised that Morocco is part of Africa but hadn’t thought that so many would identify quite as strongly as African. Even in our short stay the tensions between cultures was obvious, in the south many identified strongly as Berbers but in Fes that wasn’t as obvious. Discrimination against “African noir” was also present, perhaps because slavery wasn’t illegal till 1924 and is still carried on informally today according to some reports. While we saw heaps of spices, the food was subtly rather than strongly spiced, but delicious. Prices varied a lot and mostly depended on how touristy the place was rather than the quality of the food. I had also imagined the desert as sandy, but while we saw sand dunes, most of the desert was just stony. Oasis weren’t a ring of date palms around a spring either but followed a river or a string of springs, so they were long and thin. We went on quite a few drives for several hours and I had thought that it might have been boring but the hills and mountains had subtly different colours and the gorges were really dramatic. There was almost always something to see, often herds of sheep, goats or even camels with their attendant herder. So it was definitely a land of contrasts: high tech with cell phones everywhere and low tech with the same bread ovens that have been used for thousands of years; beautiful with lovely palaces and buildings and ugly with rubbish everywhere; generous people taking you into their houses and people trying to rip you off, but it was never dull and it is still providing food for thought. ~Jeanette Chapman
|
AuthorsWe'll have a variety of authors from OGHS over the year sharing their thoughts and experiences about education, teaching and learning Archives
June 2019
Categories
All
|