![]() I first encountered Gerd Gigerenzer at a conference in 2010 in Slovenia. He was a very entertaining and informative speaker and I enjoyed his presentation so much I bought the book! One thing that stayed with me was that medical students got less the 25% correct on a test on probability. Specialists didn’t fare much better. How are we able to make informed decisions in life, if we don’t understand the statistics? Especially the probabilities! “There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow” Does this mean it will either rain or not rain tomorrow? It will rain tomorrow in 30% of the area? It will rain 30% of the time? Or it will rain on 30% of the days like tomorrow? We need to know what the 30% is referring to. The book has many examples (some I now use in my classes) where statistics and probability have been incorrectly interpreted with dire consequences, a man who tested to positive to AIDS who committed suicide but didn’t have AIDS, people going to jail for offences they didn’t commit. My pet favourite for misinterpreting risk is Angelina Jolie. Her decision to have her breasts removes was front page news, the admission the quoted risk was incorrect about page 12. Gerd takes us through interpreting the risk by simplifying the often confusing conditional probabilities and just using a “how many people out of 100” approach. Consider a mammogram. “Your friend is in tears and is wondering what a positive result means. Is it absolutely positive she has breast cancer, or is the chance 99 percent, 95 percent, 90 percent, 50 percent or something else?” Then Gerd shows how anybody, even those who are math phobic can work it out. “Think of 100 women. One has breast cancer, and she will probably test positive. Of the 99 who do not have breast cancer, 9 will also test positive. How many of those who test positive actually have breast cancer?” So it is easy to see there were 10 women who tested positive, but only 1 (10%) actually had cancer! ![]() The book also discusses the relevance of national screening. While those who are picked up by the screening have improved outcomes, there is also a downside. Many of those who test positive do not and have a negative outcome – the next steps involve risks and then there is the stress. Gerd looks at whether this is the best use of the Health dollar but leaves the conclusion up to the reader. Gerd is very qualified to discuss statistics as he is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development[1]and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy,[2] both in Berlin, Germany. His mission is to try and make risk more understandable to everyone. I thoroughly recommend this book to anybody interested in improving their understanding of Risk and wanting to make informed decisions in their lives. You do not need to be a Maths nerd to understand, you just need some critical thinking!
~Jeanette Chapman
1 Comment
Robyn Bazsika
6/4/2018 11:18:11 am
This is a great blog Jenny. At a number of the career conferences I've been to, employer feedback speaks highly of classics scholars for a number of reasons, some of which you have mentioned. Classics students are highly valued in the workplace, due mostly to the skills and insights they have gained from studying Classics. It is true that there are limited job opportunities in Classics, however, in the Careers Department we are always encouraging our students to make up their degree with what they are good at doing, what they enjoy doing and what makes them employable on the other side. Classics is a great subject to add to any degree mix. The BASc offered by Otago University is a good example of a degree where students can mix up the Sciences with the Arts disciplines and I have had a number of students in my office this week who are keen to undertake this course of study. Well worth checking out. Your passion for Classics translates into our students who take Classics absolutely loving it. https://www.otago.ac.nz/courses/qualifications/basc.html
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